Week 8 Exness economic calendar report 2025
By Paul Reid
This week brings a series of critical economic events, from interest rate decisions to key inflation and employment data. Here’s what traders and investors should watch for, along with the potential market reactions.
Monday, February 17 – Japan’s GDP Growth Rate
Markets kick off the week with Japan’s Q4 GDP data, released at 07:50 GMT. The previous quarter saw a 0.4% increase, with expectations slightly lower at 0.3%. A weaker figure may put pressure on the Japanese yen (JPY) and the Nikkei 225, reinforcing concerns about slower economic growth.
Tuesday, February 18 – RBA Rate Decision and UK Unemployment
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at 03:30 GMT, with expectations of a 0.25% rate cut, bringing the rate from 4.35% to 4.10%. A cut could weaken the Australian dollar (AUD) but provide a boost to the ASX 200 stock index due to lower borrowing costs.
Later in the morning, the UK unemployment rate for December is released at 07:00 GMT. The jobless rate is expected to tick up from 4.4% to 4.5%, which could weigh on the British pound (GBP) and FTSE 100, as signs of a weakening labor market might fuel recession fears.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index follows at 13:30 GMT, offering insights into New York’s manufacturing sector. A weak reading could signal broader economic slowdown, affecting USD currency pairs and US equity markets.
Wednesday, February 19 – UK Inflation and US Housing Data
The UK reports its January consumer price index (CPI) at 07:00 GMT, with inflation expected to rise from 2.5% to 2.8%. If inflation runs hotter than expected, traders may anticipate a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England, potentially strengthening the pound but pressuring UK bond markets.
Across the Atlantic, the US releases housing starts and building permits at 13:30 GMT. Housing starts are forecast to dip from 1.499 million to 1.387 million, while permits may hold steady at 1.454 million. Weak numbers could weigh on homebuilder stocks and dampen sentiment for the US dollar.
The highlight of the day is the FOMC meeting minutes at 19:00 GMT, which could provide clues on future interest rate policy. Markets will be watching closely for any signals of a shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance, with potential volatility in USD currency pairs, US bonds, and equities.
Thursday, February 20 – US Jobless Claims and Manufacturing Data
The weekly initial jobless claims report at 13:30 GMT is expected to show a slight increase from 213,000 to 215,000. If claims rise more than expected, it could weaken the dollar and fuel concerns about a slowing labor market.
At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to drop sharply from 44.3 to 21.5. A significant decline would signal manufacturing weakness, potentially softening the dollar while weighing on US equity markets.
Friday, February 21 – UK Retail Sales and Global PMIs
The UK reports retail sales at 07:00 GMT, with expectations of a 0.3% monthly increase following a -0.3% decline in December. A strong rebound could boost GBP currency pairs and UK retail stocks, indicating improving consumer sentiment.
Later in the day, the flash PMI readings for February will be released across the Eurozone and the United States, offering an early look at business activity. These indicators can drive major market moves, particularly in EUR/USD, S&P 500 futures, and European stock indices.
Market Outlook
This week’s events carry significant weight for the global economy. Inflation trends in the UK, US housing data, and central bank policy signals will set the tone for currency markets, stocks, and bonds. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility, particularly surrounding the FOMC minutes, RBA decision, and US PMI data.
With interest rate expectations evolving and economic growth concerns lingering, markets are poised for an active trading week.
This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly.
Author:
Paul Reid
Paul Reid is a financial journalist dedicated to uncovering hidden fundamental connections that can give traders an advantage. Focusing primarily on the stock market, Paul's instincts for identifying major company shifts is well established from following the financial markets for over a decade.